Changes in world oil prices always depend on the two categories of factors: the speculative and fundamental. The latter category includes a number of crude oil per year, the amount of oil reserves in the countries that sell it, as well as an increase or decrease oil production in producing countries.
Depending on how you will change the oil price of oil in the world will be a change in prices in many sectors of the economy. Any increase in oil prices leads to increased transport costs, the prices of nonferrous metals also increased. Machinery and gas industry does not remain unchanged. Rising prices for coal and electricity.
Of course, that world oil prices due to demand change. After all, oil prices - an essential product of the economic production process. World oil demand plays a special role, but most importantly - offers the possibility of crude oil for long-term supply, and the medium.
According to research analysts, since the thirties, the dynamics of oil prices is divided into four phases. Was originally a phase of moderate growth, which was replaced by a phase of rapid growth. Oil prices have risen in a short amount of time a substantial amount. Next - the phase of stabilization and completes the cycle phase of moderate growth.
Scientists estimate that from 2005 to 2020 is expected to phase of rapid growth in world oil prices. Moreover, it is expected that in 2020, world oil prices are incredibly high. According to the estimates of analysts, the decline will go only after 2020. But it is not clear yet, because of what prices will be lowered.
We consider two options:
1) Average natural decline in prices, followed by another increase.
2) Long-term decline in prices, which is associated with a global problem - a lack of resources due to their depletion or creation of new energy technologies that will allow use of other fuels. Thus, oil will cease to be the world's top fuel, and the "oil era" is over.
Due to the sharp increase in oil demand in 2020, prices also rise sharply. For example, scientists estimate that the average price of $ 100. / Bbl. This price may survive for five years - from 2015 to 2020. It should also take into account and the future of oil.